In the first major poll after both conventions, Trump’s bump has vanished
Prior to both conventions, a poll from CBS and the New York Times had Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump tied at 40 percent. What’s remarkable about that isn’t just that the two were tied. It’s that 20 percent of respondents did not have a preference between them. In the first poll conducted after both conventions, that situation has changed. Now, according to CBS News, Clinton leads Trump 46 to 39 — a seven-point swing, though still leaving a lot of people undecided.
Between the two conventions, CBS conducted another survey, showing that both Clinton and Trump had gained two points. That’s a different shift than was seen in other polls, which we’ll get to in a second. But it’s worth tracking how opinions in their surveys changed overall and by party.
Compared to the pre-convention poll, Clinton gained six points and Trump lost one. The margin of error here means that Trump’s support is essentially unchanged — but Clinton’s gain is real. Broken down by party, you see that Clinton improved dramatically with independent voters, gaining after both conventions. Trump gained a bit among Democrats, but that’s it. (Clinton’s five-point gain among Republicans after the Democratic convention is probably what her camp wanted to see, but it’s barely outside the margin of error.)
We’ll also note that Clinton’s net favorability rating among independents went from a horrible minus-43 to a less-horrible (though-still-bad) minus-35. Overall, she improved from minus-26 to minus-14, while Trump went from minus-24 to minus-21.
Again, CBS’s gains for Clinton should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt simply because other polls showed Trump getting a bigger spike. The RealClearPolitics average shows that spike clearly — along with how fast it vanished.
Read more at washingtonpost.com.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a town hall campaign event, Monday, Aug. 1, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio . (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a town hall event, Monday, Aug. 1, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio . (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
