3 things that could decide NBA Finals between New York Knicks, San Antonio Spurs
The parity era continues.
After San Antonio denied the Thunder’s repeat bid Saturday in Oklahoma City, the NBA will have a different champion for an eighth consecutive year with no team winning multiple titles in that span. The unprecedent stretch in NBA history will continue with either the Spurs or the New York Knicks.
The battle to be the next team to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy starts Wednesday in San Antonio. The Spurs have home-court advantage thanks to a 62-20 regular-season record. The Spurs have 21 losses if the NBA Cup final Dec. 16 counted toward the regular-season record. Victor Wembanyama came off the bench and played 25 minutes in New York’s 124-113 victory.
The Spurs evened the season series with a 134-132 win on New Year’s Eve before the Knicks dominated the most recent meeting, a 114-89 win in March.
San Antonio is a -190 favorite to win the title, per FanDuel, but the Knicks have the Spurs’ respect.
“It’s a great team of experienced guys who are not here by chance but by relentless effort over the years and very different career paths for all of them,” Wembanyama said Tuesday. “They’re right where they’re supposed to be.”
Here are three things that will decide the series:

- Deploying DPoY
Mitch Johnson has a decision to make before Game 1 tips off. San Antonio’s coach will have plenty of options whenever Wembanyama, the unanimous Defensive Player of the Year, is on the court. Karl-Anthony Towns is the most obvious matchup from a size perspective, but he’s got a 3-point shot that could pull the 7-foot-4 phenom away from the basket, where he’s most impactful on defense. Johnson could also have Wembanyama float around the rim and dare Josh Hart, the weakest shooter in the Knicks’ starting lineup, to shoot better than his 30.3% 3-point mark in this postseason indicates. That’s how the Spurs started the last matchup against the Knicks, and Hart went 4 for 14, including a 1-for-6 mark from 3-point range. The Spurs were content to let 6-6 Stephon Castle do his best against Towns, while De’Aaron Fox started the game on Jalen Brunson and Devin Vassell was deployed on Mikal Bridges. Vassell also spent time guarding Chet Holmgren in the win-or-go-home game, showing he was capable of guarding a bigger opponent. However it shakes out, Wembanyama’s unparalleled combination of size, length and defensive IQ allows the Spurs to run a switch-happy defensive scheme built on Wembanyama being around the ball.

2. Emotional, physical fatigue
There’s no denying the Spurs are ahead of schedule. It’s Wembanyama’s third year, Stephon Castle’s second and Dylan Harper’s first in the NBA. The postseason is a first for all three of San Antonio’s young talents. Emotions were obvious after Wembanyama anchored the decisive win over the defending champs. While the Knicks franchise hasn’t been to the Finals since 1999, their starters – Jalen Brunson, Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Hart – have ample postseason experience. Anunoby won a championship with the Raptors in 2019, while Bridges was part of the Suns team that reached the 2021 Finals. The three Villanova products – Brunson, Bridges and Hart – also won championships in college. New York also has the edge in physical rest. The Knicks are on one of the most dominant postseason stretches in NBA history, winning 11 straight playoff games after sweeping the 76ers and Cavaliers. They haven’t lost since April 23 with just one of those contests – a 108-102 win against Philadelphia in Game 2 of the second-round series – decided by fewer than 11 points. The Spurs are younger, which should help handle the physical fatigue. How that impacts their handling of the emotional toll will be something to monitor.

3. Shooting swings
Home-court advantage doesn’t seem to mean as much as it used to, especially in Game 7. Before 2020, home teams won 78.5% of the time in Game 7. Since 2021, that number drops to 42.9%. That’s seemingly been replaced by shooting variance. San Antonio would be watching Game 7 from home if not for outscoring Oklahoma City by 15 points off 3-pointers on the Thunder’s home court. The Spurs got a 6-for-10 night from Julian Champagnie to lead the team’s 17-for-40 mark (43%). Jared McCain went 2 for 7 for the Thunder, which finished 12 for 35 (34%) from deep. Champagnie was a 38.1% 3-point shooter this season; McCain went 38.5% for the season and 39.1% during his time with the Thunder. The Spurs have averaged 35.3 attempts from 3 in this postseason, ranking seventh, with a 36.5% mark that ranks fourth. The Knicks have been the hottest-shooting team in the playoffs, making 40% of their 32.9 attempts per game. Those numbers come out close enough to tell us the winner of the next title could come down to which team is hotter than the other over the race to four more wins.





