Americans are starting their winter holiday shopping earlier this year and expecting to spend about the same dollar amount as last season. But as concerns about inflation and overall affordability drive “timid” consumer sentiment, this year’s shoppers also are prioritizing essential spending and looking to take advantage of more deals.

These are among the trends identified in the latest holiday consumer surveys from Circana, an American market research and technology company based in Chicago, and New York City-based global management consulting firm McKinsey & Company.

Even as the latest surveys point to some consumer volatility, “there will be holiday shopping,” McKinsey Senior Partner Emily Reasor said in a Sept. 8 episode of the “McKinsey on Consumer & Retail” podcast.

Local retailers across Colorado Springs agree — and it’s already begun, some said.

“We have people coming in and saying, ‘Oh, I just did my stocking stuffer shopping,’ or ‘I’m already picking up things for the holidays.’ We’ve been busy,” said Patricia Seator, co-owner and the lead buyer for Poor Richard’s downtown. The organization includes a book and gift store, a toy store, a restaurant and wine bar in one location on Tejon Street in Colorado Springs.

Americans expect to spend an average of $756 on holiday purchases this year, 3% higher than 2024’s spending intentions, according to Circana, which shared a curated selection of insights from its yearly pre-holiday consumer survey in a news release Oct. 7.

Data also revealed shoppers intend to shift their spending more toward needed goods and services, such as baby supplies, fresh produce and gasoline, and spend less on semi-discretionary and discretionary items such as toys, vehicles and personal care services, according to the results of McKinsey’s latest ConsumerWise survey of more than 4,000 Americans, conducted July 25 to Aug. 3. 

More than 80% of holiday shoppers anticipate higher prices this year, motivating them to get an early start to avoid possible future price increases and to capitalize on early seasonal promotions, the Circana survey found.

“While consumer spending to date has demonstrated resilience, final retail holiday results will be greatly influenced by the timing of everything from promotions to the news of the day,” Circana’s Chief Retail Advisor Marshal Cohen said in the Oct. 7 release.

Sales at Poor Richard’s are already going strong. For September and the beginning of October, they’re up about 40% over the same period last year, co-owner Richard Skorman said.

Even as consumers report they intend to spend less on non-essential items this year, Seator and toy store purchaser Jenn Goodman expect the robust sales Poor Richard’s is seeing now will continue through the traditional winter shopping season.

“I think it’s going to stay strong. Every number I have is indicating that’s going to stay strong,” Goodman said.

Poor Richard’s prepared for anticipated national policy and economic changes, such as new tariffs enacted on some goods this year, Seator and Goodman said.

They ordered inventory early, hoping to absorb some of the potential impact of the tariffs on their customers. Poor Richard’s also changed some of its vendors, purchasing “as much American-made stuff” as possible to further keep costs down, Goodman said.

Most toys or their component parts are made in China, she added, so “the toy industry has been particularly challenging” as new tariffs have been enacted on Chinese goods.

President Donald Trump this month promised to implement additional 100% levies on Chinese imports by Nov. 1, just as the holiday shopping season begins in earnest. Retail and trade experts have warned the additional tariffs could lead to more price increases and crunch demand.

Goodman is optimistic, however.

“I’m not necessarily worried about Christmas, because … it’s Christmas. People are going to buy toys,” she said.

McKinsey’s Reasor noted in last month’s podcast that the impact of tariffs on consumer sentiment “has come down slightly” since earlier in 2025.

“I think some of that is because consumers are now more accustomed to hearing news about tariffs, as opposed to it being so shocking earlier in the year,” she said. “But the primary driver remains — as it has over the past several quarters — inflation.”

Laurel Schaffer, who opened VIV Home & Goods this summer in the former home of Cy’s Drive-In on Colorado Springs’ west side, said she is preparing for the holiday season by focusing on offering a selection of high quality, sustainable items and gifts that will enrich her customers’ time and memories made with their loved ones.

Visitors can find brightly colored hand-crafted textiles, pillows, clothing, dinnerware, decor, furnishings, candles and more at Schaffer’s store.

“I absolutely understand people budgeting more, but again, I think this is a time where we do spend a lot of time at home. So if your environment is not comfortable or inviting and you’re having people over, or you want to spend time on the couch doing nothing, you need … comfort,” she said.

People also tend to dine out more when they’re doing their holiday shopping. Half of respondents surveyed by McKinsey & Company said they plan to spend the same on meals at sit-down restaurants over the period of August through November this year as compared to usual.

Advance holiday party bookings at Jose Muldoon’s and MacKenzie’s Chop House in downtown Colorado Springs are similar to what they were in 2024, “which is a good sign,” said Luke Travins, co-owner of Concept Restaurants, which operates both dining establishments.

Despite excellent foot traffic, though, customers spent less last year, with average spend per customer down 5%, Travins said.

He expects to see the same smaller check averages this year, with more customers opting for a glass of wine rather than a higher end bottle, for example, he said.

Weather is another big factor for retail and restaurant sales, especially downtown.

“If we don’t have snowstorms on weekends, we will get those downtown shoppers to dine with us. If it’s a poor weather December, they will shop online,” Travins said.

The Downtown Partnership merchant group will again roll out a series of initiatives and campaigns this year to support downtown Colorado Springs businesses and create a vibrant holiday experience, the organization said.

To guide downtown businesses in their holiday marketing, the nonprofit hosted a free holiday marketing class on Thursday, specifically addressing consumers’ holiday wants and needs, spokeswoman Carrie Simison said.

The group will host its annual “Shop Local, Win Local” initiative, extended by a week this year, from Nov. 7-Dec. 14. For five weeks, downtown shoppers have the opportunity to win weekly drawings for gift baskets, gift cards and a $1,000 gift card grand prize.

Other campaigns and events that will draw families and shoppers downtown for the holidays, Simison said, include Skate in the Park throughout the fall and early winter and the Acacia Park Holiday Celebration on Nov. 14; a Character Stroll on Nov. 15; Holiday Stroll on Dec. 10; the Downtown Partnership’s popular holiday coupon book; and the organization’s Digital Gift Guides, posted to its social media pages starting in mid-November.

The group has also partnered with the Colorado Springs Parking Enterprise to provide free parking at street meters and city-owned parking garages downtown on Black Friday, Nov. 28, and Small Business Saturday, Nov. 29, saving visitors a little extra.

Shopping “small and local” has big impacts on a community, Simison said.

Data from an American Express study in 2022 show that 68 cents of every dollar spent at a local business stays in the community, she said. Because local businesses tend also to use other local vendors for their needs, the money spent there supports multiple businesses.

“All that said, this season, we encourage people to shop like your favorite places depend on it, because they do. … The truth is, every purchase is a vote for the kind of community we want to have tomorrow,” Simison said.