The first month of the college football season has gone by in an instant.

In many ways, the Big 12 has lived up to its billing as the most exciting conference in America, despite only a handful of conference matchups being played so far. But after this week, every team will go against another Big 12 team, and already, things are starting to look a bit different than what we expected to see before the season started.

Let’s sort out who’s for real and who’s not entering the final weekend of September.

Contenders

Arizona State, Iowa State, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech

No one in the Big 12 has made a bigger statement than Texas Tech.

After spending like an SEC team in the transfer portal this offseason, the Red Raiders proved those tens of millions of dollars went to quality players in the dominant road win at Utah last Saturday. They out-scored the Utes 24-7 in the fourth quarter with backup quarterback Will Hammond in the game, and he played so well that Texas Tech has a real decision to make with who starts between Hammond and regular starter Behren Morton when the team gets back to action next week. Regardless, it might be a case of ‘catch us if you can’ in Lubbock.

The other teams in the group are not a surprise, except Houston. The Cougars handily beat Coach Prime’s Buffs in the Big 12 opener two weeks ago and were big road favorites in a late Friday game against a struggling Oregon State team.

Arizona State, the defending Big 12 champions, rebounded nicely from a road loss to Mississippi State with a close win at Baylor last week that proved the Sun Devils are still a serious threat in the conference. As is Iowa State and TCU, both of whom have multiple impressive wins already and have two of the best quarterbacks in the conference (the Cyclones’ Rocco Becht and the Horned Frogs’ Josh Hoover).

Too early too tell

Baylor, BYU, Colorado, Kansas, Utah

A week ago, Utah would have been firmly in the “contenders” category after some impressive nonconference wins and a new-look offense that appeared to be one of the best in the Big 12 with Devon Dampier at quarterback. But that loss at home to Texas Tech was so lopsided, the Utes are firmly back in ‘prove it’ mode. They’re heavy road favorites at West Virginia ahead of a bye week that leads into a pivotal matchup against Arizona State in two weeks.

Baylor and BYU might quickly ascend out of this tier with chances to win on the road this week. The Bears are facing an Oklahoma State team that might be the worst Power 4 team in the country, while the Cougars come to Boulder for a late-night matchup against the Buffs, who could really use a win of their own with a conference loss already on their resume. 

CU is also desperate to prove last week’s impressive win over Wyoming is more about the improvement by Coach Prime’s team and not the opponent it faced.

Lastly, Kansas would certainly be in the “contenders” category if not for a blown lead against rival Missouri a few weeks ago, but now the Jayhawks have a chance to move to 2-0 in Big 12 play as home favorites against Cincinnati this week.

Pretenders

Arizona, Central Florida, Cincinnati

The teams in this category are a combined 8-1 through three games apiece, but the nine opponents they’ve beaten have a combined record of 14-19 and include multiple FCS teams and just two Power 4 opponents.

We just need to see all three of these teams prove themselves against some of the top teams in the Big 12 before they can be moved out of the “pretenders” group.

Of the three, Arizona’s success might be the most real of the bunch. Brent Brennan has clearly figured out something in year two as the Wildcats’ coach, and quarterback Noah Fifita is playing close to the level he was in 2023, but the Bearcats and Knights are capable of beating teams other than Bowling Green and Bill Belichick’s dreadful North Carolina.

Out of the picture

Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

The fact that Mike Gundy was fired by Oklahoma State was not surprising, but the timing was. Gundy is a legend in Stillwater. He’s got over 100 wins more than the No. 2 coach on the all-time list. But the Cowboys have hit rock bottom this season, and even though Gundy has been their coach for over 20 years, he leaves unceremoniously at the beginning of what could be one of the worst seasons in program history.

One of the other teams in this list, West Virginia, was also one that could’ve been predicted before the season. Yes, the Mountaineers are 2-2 with a win over rival Pittsburgh, but they also just lost to Kansas by 31 points last week and scored just 10 points in a road loss against Ohio in Week 2.

Kansas State is the surprise of the entire Big 12, though. The Wildcats were once again a preseason favorite to win the conference after returning a good amount of talent from last year’s team that won nine games, and Chris Klieman’s team may just be the latest victims of the Ireland curse.

After losing to Iowa State on the Emerald Isle in Week 0, K-State has won just one game and it was a nailbiter against FCS North Dakota and since then losses to Army and Arizona have dropped the ‘Cats to 1-3.

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King’s 5 Games to Watch

No. 13 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 LSU (1:30 p.m. ABC)

The last time these two teams met in Oxford, Miss., they combined for over 100 points. The offenses are both still explosive, but don’t expect the same amount of fireworks this time around. The Rebels should get QB Austin Simmons back, but backup Trinidad Chambliss proved himself more than capable against Tulane last week. Still, the Tigers might have too much talent for an Ole Miss team eager to prove it belongs at the top of the SEC.

King’s pick: LSU +1.5

Washington vs. No. 1 Ohio State (1:30 p.m. CBS/Paramount+)

The defending national champion Buckeyes hit the road for the first time this season, and they’ll face a dangerous Washington team that potentially has an advantage at quarterback thanks to star sophomore Demond Williams Jr. The Huskies have won 22 straight home games, but welcoming the No. 1 team in the country is enough to break any streak, no matter how long.

King’s pick: Ohio State -7.5

No. 14 Iowa State vs. Arizona (5 p.m. ESPN)

The best Big 12 game of the week is Arizona State vs. TCU on Friday night, but this showdown in Ames, Iowa, isn’t too bad, either. The Cyclones have emerged unbeaten from a tough schedule to begin the season, but this game against the Wildcats is suddenly a little bit more enticing. Iowa State can join Texas Tech at the top of the Big 12 with a convincing win over the team from Tucson.

King’s pick: Iowa State -5.5

No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 17 Alabama (5:30 p.m. ABC)

The two defining programs of the last decade never disappoint when they meet on the football field. The Crimson Tide has bounced back nicely after an embarrassing Week 1 loss at Florida State, scoring over 100 points in its last two games, but this will be a completely different beast, even if the Bulldogs defense isn’t as good as Kirby Smart’s teams have had in the past. Georgia has also had two weeks to prepare after its massive road win at Tennessee.

King’s pick: Georgia -3.5

No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 6 Oregon (5:30 p.m. NBC/Peacock)

This is the big one. It’s year two in the conference, but Oregon is about to get its “Welcome to the Big Ten” moment when the Ducks walk into Beaver Stadium and see over 100,000 screaming Penn State fans dressed in white. Both teams have taken care of business against bad teams in the first few weeks and both are eager to prove why they’re each thought of as national title contenders. 

King’s pick: Oregon +3.5

King’s YTD record ATS: 9-11 (1-4 last week)

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King’s Top 5 Heisman Candidates

1. John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma

Even though a finger injury might sideline him for a week or two, Mateer remains the Heisman favorite thanks to another solid performance in another ranked win for the Sooners. In Oklahoma’s 24-17 victory over Auburn, Mateer had 271 passing yards and two touchdowns as he’s been the perfect addition to a program needing an offensive anchor to complement a standout defense.

2. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

Curt Cignetti might have an even better team than the one that led the Hoosiers to the program’s first College Football Playoff appearance last season and the new quarterback is the biggest reason why. Mendoza has been a perfect fit in the Indiana offense after transferring in from Cal, and he showed why in his team’s 63-10 beatdown of Illinois last week, in which Mendoza threw for 267 yards and 5 touchdowns.

3. Robert Henry Jr., RB, UTSA

Colorado State coach Jay Norvell believes Henry is a future NFL running back and it’s easy to see why after he led UTSA to a tight win over the Rams last week in Fort Collins. He currently leads the nation in rushing yards and accumulated 150 yards in a one-point win. He’s a big play waiting to happen and should emerge into the national spotlight the way Ashton Jeanty did at Boise State last fall.

4. Jayden Maiava, QB, USC

Lincoln Riley has found his latest star quarterback, it seems. After taking over as the starter midway through last season, Maiava has picked up right where he left off with an impressive first four games of this season. He’s racked up 1,223 passing yards to go with 13 total touchdowns and no interceptions. 

5. Beau Pribula, QB, Missouri

Did Penn State pick the wrong quarterback? Probably not, no. But Pribula is showing why the Nittany Lions believed all of last season they had two starting quarterbacks on the roster with Pribula and Drew Allar. Even though he wasn’t Missouri’s clear starter to start the season after transferring in over the offseason, he is now after leading the Tigers to a 4-0 start with nearly 1,000 passing yards, 148 rushing yards and 11  total touchdowns.