Colorado’s K-12 schools have a behavioral problem. More than just student safety and general decorum are at stake if schools cannot address it.

Colorado needs not only to refresh its population growth but make the most of the population it has. Schools are the incubator for the future workforce in Colorado’s new, highly lucrative knowledge economy, and one that demographic realities say will be increasingly important in the coming years.

In the 2010s, Colorado’s identity was one of youth, change and growth. It had a booming economy, fueled by one of the nation’s most rapidly expanding populations and a reputation for attractiveness to the then-up-and-coming millennial generation.

That identity has shifted. Colorado’s migration from other states has slowed significantly and is now average among U.S. states. It’s also getting older and not replenishing its young people domestically. The latest analysis from the Common Sense Institute shows that our state is aging faster than most of the nation, while our birth rate is in decline.

The state must address the faltering cycle of new families and new workers. If the pipeline of young, working-age Coloradans is narrowing, then the economic health of our state will depend more than ever on the homegrown talent of Colorado.

The Common Sense Institute’s most recent education report, Discipline, Absenteeism, and Achievement: A Data-Driven Look at Colorado’s Largest School Districts, underscores one of the state’s biggest challenges rarely talked about in its K-12 system: student behavior.

The report is the first of its kind, based on the first year of state-required data collection on student behavior including substance use, weapons possession, assault, and truancy. Ultimately, it makes clear that student behavior is not simply a matter of manners or decorum. It is a central predictor of academic achievement, and by extension, of Colorado’s long-term prosperity.

The analysis of Colorado’s 21 largest school districts shows a sobering pattern.

On the whole, students in Colorado are doing a poor job of the first step to success in any endeavor: showing up. Across those 21 districts 28% of students — over one in four — are chronically absent, well above the national average. In some areas, more than one in three are. In Pueblo City 60 and Aurora Public Schools, more than 40% of students are chronically absent.

That absenteeism is an issue that should be self-evident. Students cannot learn if they are not in the building for class.

For those students who do attend regularly, there is still a swarm of other behavior issues that threaten the learning environment. That may sound harsh, but it is statistically accurate.

Behavioral incidents — ranging from bullying to drug use to assaults — vary widely across districts, but the correlation with academic underperformance is undeniable.

Districts with high discipline and attendance problems also record the lowest test scores. CSI found a negative correlation of –0.72 between student violation rates and SAT math proficiency, and –0.69 between absenteeism and SAT math proficiency. In other words, the more chaotic and absent the school environment, the lower the academic output. In statistical terms, these are called “strong” correlations.

This is not an abstract statistic. In Boulder Valley, where student behavior problems are low, nearly 60% of students meet SAT math proficiency. In Pueblo City 60, where violations and absences soar, fewer than 10% do.

This correlation holds across the 21 districts examined by the state’s data, and it is a bad harbinger for certain districts in particular.

Pueblo City 60 had a chronic absenteeism rate of 43%, and Aurora Public Schools had a rate of 40%. Harrison 2 had the highest rate of behavioral incidents generally – nearly three times the state average.

Direct physical safety is compromised in certain school districts several times more than average. Aurora Public Schools had 27 third-degree assaults per 1,000 students, 44% more than the next highest district.

In other districts, students have higher uses of drugs and alcohol. Pueblo City 60 had 18 marijuana violations per 1,000 students, nearly three times the average. Aurora Public Schools had 3.6 drug violations per 1,000 students, nearly three times the state average.

Colorado’s students of today represent our economic future. Colorado’s shrinking youth population has already led to clusters of school closures in the Denver metro. Without the 2010s tide of incoming residents from other states, each Colorado student’s potential now carries outsized weight for the workforce and future generations of economic prosperity.

The newly-required state data is a barometer for future performance. It shows clearly what parents have insisted for ages. Chronic absenteeism is perhaps the single strongest indicator of future academic failure. If nearly 30% of Colorado students are chronically absent, that translates to tens of thousands of young adults more likely to struggle in postsecondary education and the workforce.

Fostering safe school environments with strategies to reduce chronic absenteeism will be important for school district efforts to graduate students with the skills they need to succeed in postsecondary education and the workforce. CSI research from last year noted that by 2031, 73% of Colorado’s jobs will require at least some postsecondary education, and at present, only 66.5% of the state’s adult population born in Colorado meets that standard. That’s about 79,000 Coloradans short of 73%.

Absenteeism trends should matter to Colorado employers. Policymakers, employers and civic leaders should appreciate the link between today’s school culture and tomorrow’s workforce.

Colorado’s migration patterns leave no room for complacency. Our state must try to appeal to movers from other states, as always, but it cannot rely on them. The future workforce of the 2030s and 2040s is already in our classrooms. More proficient students mean a stronger economy and greater economic prosperity for the student, themselves. Increasing the number of students graduating with the knowledge and skills they need to thrive in the Colorado economy is critical, especially with Colorado’s aging population.

The legislature, in passing HB22-1376, which contained the data reporting requirement CSI used to analyze this information, has helped Coloradans have increased transparency around critically important data about the state of education. This data is a positive step to help school administrators and elected officials better understand the safety of Colorado’s kids in their schools.

This report highlights that school safety not only impacts the well-being of students in an immediate sense, but also plays a critical role in predicting a school’s academic success and culture.

These trends suggest that addressing aspects of school culture may be an important part of addressing school performance trends.

It is important to note that the data contained in this report is from the 2023-2024 school year so some changes by school districts are surely being implemented. When additional data is released from more recent years, CSI will certainly update our analysis.

Each year school districts and state policymakers should examine school safety and absenteeism trends to ensure they are implementing policies that improve school safety and ultimately student performance. Our economic competitiveness may depend on it.

Kelly Caufield is executive director of the Common Sense Institute.