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Trump wins New Hampshire primary as rematch with Biden appears increasingly likely

MANCHESTER, N.H. • Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, tightening his grip on the Republican presidential nomination and bolstering the likelihood of a rematch later this year against President Joe Biden.

The result was a setback for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who invested significant time and financial resources into winning the state. She was the last major challenger in the race after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ended his presidential bid over the weekend, allowing her to campaign as the sole alternative to Trump.

In Colorado, Trump’s allies cheered his victory.

“TRUMP 2024!” U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert said on X.

Haley intensified her criticism of the former president, questioning his mental acuity and pitching herself as a unifying candidate who would usher in generational change.

The appeals failed to resonate with enough voters.

Trump can now boast of being the first Republican presidential candidate to win open races in Iowa and New Hampshire since both states began leading the election calendar in 1976, a striking sign of how rapidly Republicans have rallied around him to make him their nominee for the third consecutive time.

By posting easy wins in both early states, Trump is demonstrating an ability to unite the GOP’s factions firmly behind him. He’s garnered support from the evangelical conservatives who are influential in Iowa and New Hampshire’s more moderate voters, strength he hopes to replicate as the primary quickly expands to the rest of the U.S.

Haley was unable to capitalize on New Hampshire’s more moderate political tradition.

Now, her path to becoming the GOP standard-bearer is narrowing quickly. She won’t compete in a contest that awards delegates until South Carolina’s Feb. 24 primary.

As the state’s former governor, she’s hoping a strong showing there could propel her into the March 5 Super Tuesday contests. But in a deeply conservative state where Trump is exceedingly popular, those ambitions may be tough to realize and a home-state loss could prove politically devastating.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire Democrats, in defiance of the national party, moved forward with a primary in which Biden didn’t campaign. But most of the focus was on the Republican side and whether Trump’s march to the nomination could be slowed.

New Hampshire’s demographics favored Trump, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of 1,968 New Hampshire voters who took part in the Republican primary and 903 who participated in the Democratic primary. The survey is conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Trump won in the small towns and rural communities, where about two-thirds of primary participants say they live. Most GOP voters in the state lack a college degree; about two-thirds of them voted for Trump. He won about 7 in 10 Republican voters who identified as conservatives.

Trump was backed by Republicans who prioritize either immigration or the economy, the two top issues among GOP voters in New Hampshire and Iowa, where the former president won the leadoff caucuses last week.

Among those in New Hampshire who named immigration as their top priority, about three-quarters support Trump. New Hampshire’s primary voters agreed with Trump on the need to limit immigration and build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.

About half of those who said the economy was the top issue backed Trump.

Haley drew her support from groups that could be crucial in November. But those groups were distinct minorities in the GOP electorate.

She beat Trump among primary participants who were not formally affiliated with any party. About half of Haley’s supporters graduated from college, just as about half of them identify as moderates.

In many cases, her backers were simply uncomfortable with Trump.

Haley performed well among those who said Trump did something illegal in at least one of the criminal cases against him. And in the 2020 presidential election, about half of Haley’s supporters voted for Biden, a Democrat.

Iowa exposed suburban voters as a potential weakness for Trump. While Haley did slightly better in New Hampshire’s suburban communities than she did in other areas, she still didn’t pull ahead of Trump in those areas.

The vast majority of Republican voters in New Hampshire, about 8 in 10, believed Trump would win the nomination, a finding that came after his dominant showing in Iowa.

Only about 2 in 10 say Haley would be the nominee. In a blow to a candidate who has pitched herself as a Trump alternative, more than half of Haley’s own supporters think Trump will represent the party on the ballot.

About 8 in 10 say they decided before Iowa which candidate they would support. After the caucuses, three contenders ended their campaigns: biotech investor Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

About 6 in 10 GOP voters say they had their minds made up more than a month ago, including about 4 in 10 saying they have known all along.

Meanwhile, Biden’s New Hampshire victory provided key insights into the Democratic coalition.

About half hold a college degree, as education has become a major political dividing line across the country. There was almost universal support among Democratic voters for abortion to be legal in most if not all cases. About three-quarters called discrimination against Black people a major problem.

The polling also suggested that the economy might be evolving into a strength for Biden among his base. High inflation had hurt his approval ratings for most of his presidency, but inflation has eased without disrupting job growth and Democrats are showing newfound support for Biden’s agenda. More than 8 in 10 approved of his economic leadership.

There are limits on what New Hampshire can reveal, as the state is less urban, less suburban and less racially diverse than the rest of the country. Cities, suburbs and non-white voters were crucial elements of Biden’s winning 2020 coalition.

Still, not everything Biden does received strong plaudits in New Hampshire. Only about 6 in 10 approve of how he is handling immigration, and only about half approve of his handling of the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians.

About 4 in 10 say Biden is too old to serve a second term as president.

Trump traveled frequently to New Hampshire in the months leading up to the primary but didn’t spend as much time in the state as many of his rivals. That included former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a fierce Trump critic who enjoyed some popularity in the state but suspended his campaign mere days before Iowa’s caucuses in an attempt to blunt the former president’s momentum.

Rather than the traditional approach of greeting voters personally or in small groups, Trump has staged large rallies.

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