Colorado snowpack off to a below-average start
The snowpack across the state is off to a slow start, following a record-setting wet winter last year, particularly in the southwest part of the state.
The Natural Resources Conservation Service’s snowpack map shows all the river basins in the state are tracking below average so far this winter. The Colorado River Headwaters basin has the highest snowpack level in the state at 77% and the Upper Rio Grande has the lowest at 57% of average.
However in an average year, January and February can bring quite a few storms to the state which could help bring snow levels that feed rivers across the West back up.
“We still have a long enough time to go in the season that these deficits can be overcome,” said Becky Bolinger, assistant state climatologist.
The longer-term precipitation outlook for the state is uncertain right now, with a slight chance of a wetter than average winter.
A mid-December update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said El Niño trends are expected for the next few months.
If those come to fruition, more snow could fall in the mountains south of Interstate 70 than those north of the major corridor, Bolinger said.
While snowfall has been lackluster, drought is also becoming more of a problem across the state. Mid-year Colorado was drought free following a wet winter and spring. Now, much of the Western Slope and eastern plains have returned to drought conditions, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows.
The U.S. Drought Monitor official weekly conditions map for Colorado as of Dec. 28, 2023.
If dry conditions persist however, the state still has strong reservoir levels that recovered following last year’s big snows to support city residents and agriculture.
“Our reservoirs are in a good condition to carry us through drought next year and even the year after that if necessary,” Bolinger said, addressing many of the state’s smaller reservoirs. Lake Pueblo for example is an important reservoir for agriculture and urban use.
The state’s largest reservoir and federal asset, Blue Mesa, saw a massive recovery last year and is still 44 feet higher than it was last December at about 70% full, according to data from the Bureau of Reclamation.
The reservoir is used to help prop levels in Lake Powell when they drop dramatically. In 2021, the Bureau of Reclamation released 36,000 acre feet Blue Mesa, drawing it down to help keep the hydroelectric turbines turning at Glen Canyon dam.
Lake Powell made a significant recovery last year as well, but it is only 34.78% full, Bureau of Reclamation data shows.
“Our water situation here is not going to be good enough to solve the issues downstream,” Bolinger said. “We could lose a lot of water from Blue Mesa.”
So what could the New Year bring us that could improve the outlook?
Bolinger says we should hope for atmospheric rivers over the Pacific Ocean to bring in deep snows.
In the short term, Michael Garberoglio, meteorologist with the National Weather Service, expects our next best chance for snow in Colorado Springs could be in about two weeks.
The National Resource Conservation Service’s most recent snowpack maps for Colorado, as of Dec. 29, 2023.
