Democrats leading the way as Colorado candidates pile up campaign cash
The latest campaign finance reports show Colorado candidates — especially Democrats — are piling up cash as they head into the final weeks before the Nov. 6 election.
Two campaigns have taken in more than $1 million, and U.S. Rep. Jared Polis, Democratic candidate for governor, has amassed a $15 million lead over his Republican opponent Walker Stapleton, according to reports filed in mid-September with the Secretary of State’s Office.
September’s fundraising mirrored August, with political observers saying they are surprised at how much money is being poured into races here.
Only six of the 23 biggest fundraisers are Republicans.
Last month, 10 candidates had more than $100,000 and two surpassed $1 million. Of the top fundraising candidates then, only four were Republicans.
Nearly 70 percent of statewide elections have Democrats outraising their opponents, the data show.
The amounts being raised likely reflect “the kinds of resources you need to run for office in 2018,” said Matthew Hitt, a political science professor at Colorado State University.
But fundraising isn’t everything, said Robert Duffy, also a CSU political science professor.
“It’s noteworthy that there are so many of these Senate races and even a number of the House races where you’ve got people with some pretty substantial sums of money,” Duffy said. “And (the filing) is consistent with what we’ve seen with Democrats raising more money than the Republican candidates. But those differences might be mitigated by the outside spending that’s going on.”
Topping the fundraisers is Polis, who has $18,195,064, including $17,945,486 of his money. Stapleton has collected $3,086,821.
His massive fundraising lead gives Polis, who led in early polls, a significant advantage, Hitt said.
Recent media purchases by Stapleton could change those numbers, Hitt said, but Polis is planning a $3 million television ad blitz in October, Colorado Politics reported.
“That’s a good strategy if you’re concerned about mobilizing turnout,” Hitt said.
“But without recent public polling, it’s hard to know if his early advantage is holding.”
The Cook Political Report, a national election forecaster, lists the race leaning toward Polis.
The other seven-figure campaign is Democratic attorney general candidate Phil Weiser, who has collected $1,516,845, filings show. George Brauchler, the Republican candidate, has raised $555,463.
Other high-dollar campaigns are Colorado’s treasurer, secretary of state, nine Senate seats and four House slots. Jena Griswold, the Democrat seeking to be secretary of state, tops that list with $637,684. Tom Sullivan, Democratic candidate for House District 37, is at the bottom of that group, with $101,917.
In addition to candidates’ fundraising, a significant amount of money also is being spent in Colorado by outside groups, including political action committees, which is more difficult to track.
For example, while the Democratic candidate for state Senate District 16, Tammy Story, has raised $287,137 to the $125,139 raised by incumbent Republican Tim Neville, the spending is almost reversed.
“The numbers that I’ve seen suggest that Republican groups are outspending the Democratic groups by a pretty fair amount,” Duffy said. “It was about a 2-to-1 advantage that the Republican groups had over the Democratic groups’ spending money in the 16th.”
Story’s challenge to an incumbent sets a higher bar, Duffy said. Most incumbents have name recognition and political track records, which can work in their favor during campaigns. Most newcomers need to raise and spend more money to attract voters, he said.
And money can only buy so much name recognition. Most state-level candidates aren’t buying expensive network TV ads, opting instead for local cable and radio spots and sending out mailers.
“But how many pieces of mail can you send?” Duffy asked.
“At some point, the voters just get irritated by their mailbox being flooded by all these negative ads claiming that candidate A is terrible.”
conrad.swanson@gazettedev.gazette.com
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