Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s November policy meeting are likely to confirm that officials were creeping closer to their first interest-rate increase in a year before the Nov. 8 election, and developments since have only served to bolster the case for a hike.

The record of the Nov. 1-2 meeting, during which policymakers left the federal funds rate target in a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, is scheduled to be released at noon MST Wednesday in Washington.

Inflation was firming and the job market continued to post gains in the run-up to the meeting, but the U.S. presidential election loomed as a potential risk. Republican Donald Trump won the contest and his party retained control of Congress, which markets have taken as paving the way for more fiscal policy action that will lift inflation. Since Trump’s victory, federal funds futures have almost entirely priced in an increase.

“They were primed for a move, but certainly the election results, as interpreted by people in the marketplace, solidified the Fed’s ability to raise rates,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, N.C. “The Fed has really got an open path.”

Sentiment for a rate increase was clearly percolating at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting earlier this month. Even with the election just days away, members Esther George and Loretta Mester dissented in favor of increasing rates.

The committee also described the economy in positive language in its post-meeting statement, saying that the labor market “continued to strengthen,” economic activity “picked up” from the first half of the year, and inflation had “increased somewhat.”

While headline inflation remains below the committee’s 2 percent target, it has accelerated in recent months. The Fed’s preferred price index climbed by 1.2 percent on a year-over-year basis in September, up from 1 percent the prior month.

Wages are also rising amid labor market tightening, which might have generated some discussion in the Fed’s minutes.

“What I’m looking for is a sense of: what are they seeing, what are they interpreting, in the inflation data?” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Inc. in Lexington, Mass. “It’s baked in the cake that they’re going to raise rates in December, so I would look to see how they react to the data on inflation more than anything else.”

While markets have taken Trump’s election as a signal that growth will pick up, Fed officials are likely to take a more cautious view when they meet in December. Any fiscal package will still have to pass Congress, and even once implemented could take time to feed through to the economy.

The committee next meets on Dec. 13-14 and will receive this month’s U.S. payroll report plus another read on inflation before its decision day.

Dana Zzyym (The Denver Post)