Political analysts ask: Is Colorado still a battleground state or has it turned light blue?
Donald Trump has officially added Colorado to his post-nomination tour of battleground states.
Whether the Centennial State is the purple swing state it once was is up for debate, however.
Colorado pollster and political analyst Floyd Ciruli says there’s a strong indication Colorado has turned blue for Democrats, even if it’s a light blue.
“Democrats are doing pretty well here,” Ciruli said.
He noted the compelling wins by President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and how well Democrats weathered the 2014 GOP tidal wave that swept Republican Sen. Cory Gardner into office and gave Republicans the state Senate but left Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper standing with Democrats still holding the state House.
In the latest polls Hillary Clinton leads by an average of 8 points. Ciruli said her campaign and the PACs supporting her didn’t renew their advertising buys for the end of July.
Ciruli points to the influx of millennials to Colorado as well as the growing Hispanic population as potential reasons Clinton is doing well here.
“Clearly he (Trump) is targeting the white, Anglo men, working class with less than a four-year degree,” he said. “They happen to be tremendously concentrated in Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa. Colorado is not one of these … We are one of the best-educated states in the country.”
Chair of the El Paso County Republican Party Jeff Hays contradicted that.
“I know that the registration percentages are roughly evenly divided,” Hays said. “Democrats have gained a slight registration edge over us, but it’s not just a math problem. It’s a mind problem. It’s a heart problem. The Democrats are running such a deeply flawed presidential candidate and they are running such a weak campaign.”
In Colorado, there are 1.15 million registered Democrats and 1.13 million Republicans. Unaffiliated voters account for a whopping 1.28 million voters.
Hays said those numbers should put Colorado’s nine electoral votes up for grabs.
Kathleen Ricker, chair of the El Paso County Democratic Party, warned Colorado may not be as blue as it seems.
“As a true blue person, I would love to believe that,” Ricker said, noting that for the first time Democrats outnumber Republicans in registration. “Colorado is its own state. We are very independent minded, a Western-spirited state. We look at the candidates in a very open-minded way.”
That’s part of the reason Hickenlooper and Gardner won state-wide races in 2014, she said. Voters clearly split their tickets.
Ciruli said Trump has a better chance here than in many Democratic strongholds like California or New York.
“The state really does swing back and forth, but it’s leaning a bit to the left,” he said.
Both candidates could end up needing Colorado, he said, despite the fact the state only offers nine electoral votes.
If Trump wins in the Rust Belt of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Iowa – all swing states he visited in the week following the Republican National Convention – he’ll still need to pick up a big Sun Belt state like Florida or a couple of smaller states like Colorado, Ciruli said.
“The benefit of Colorado is that while the electoral vote count is small…the media buy is less expensive, the number of voters you have to motivate is smaller,” he said. “I have loved for the past decade that we have been a battleground state. They come, they spend a lot of money, and Colorado voters, I think, benefit.”
Colorado State Capitol





