ARMED FORCES BOWL – Air Force vs. Houston

3 THINGS TO WATCH

1. HOUSTON QB CASE KEENUM

How good was the Cougars’ signal-caller this year? Well, the Houston sports information department created a Web page devoted to promoting his Heisman Trophy candidacy (www.acasefortheheisman.com). In 13 games this season, Keenum has put up numbers that would seem implausible even in a video game. He completed a staggering 71 percent of his passes (468-of-659) and led the nation with 5,449 passing yards and 43 touchdowns (against just nine interceptions). Keenum was a finalist for three major awards – the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award, The Manning Award and the Walter Camp Football Foundation National Player of the Year.

2. TIME OF POSSESSION

It might be impossible to stop Keenum, as his worst days statistically would be career days for some quarterbacks. (He threw for a season-low 233 yards against SMU, but he was efficient, completing 25-of-36 passes with one touchdown and no interceptions in a 38-15 victory). But Air Force can slow Keenum by controlling time of possession and limiting his chances. Air Force should be able to run the ball on Houston, as the Cougars rank 112th out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams in rushing defense. So if Air Force can move the chains methodically and shorten the game, its defense will have to spend less time on the field.

3.  TURNOVERS

In the Falcons’ 31-28 victory over Houston in the 2008 regular season, Air Force forced two turnovers and committed none. In last season’s Armed Forces Bowl against the Cougars, the Falcons forced three turnovers but committed two in a 34-28 loss. Air Force will need to be close to turnover free (it can’t afford to give Houston a short field) and stop some Houston drives by picking off passes or forcing fumbles. In the Cougars’ three losses this season they committed nine turnovers (five fumbles, four interceptions), and in their 10 victories they committed 11. Air Force and Houston enter the game tied for 12th in the nation with 28 turnovers gained (although the Cougars have played one more game).

KEY MATCHUP

Air Force’s Pass Rush vs. The Houston Offensive Line and QB Case Keenum

Despite averaging a whopping 54.3 pass attempts in its 13 games so far this season, Houston has allowed just 18 sacks (1.38 per game, the 33rd-best mark in the country). Part of that has to do with the Cougars’ offensive line, but Keenum also deserves credit. He can get rid of the ball quickly and has “tremendous feet,” according to Air Force coach Troy Calhoun, allowing him to get out of trouble. Air Force will vary the amount of players it uses in its pass rush, but if the Falcons can get pressure with just its defensive linemen – or those three and a linebacker – it would help the Falcons’ cause tremendously.

Quote to Note: “I felt this team had the talent, the work ethic and the ability to be an 11-1 team. …. This (game) will be a chance to show what we’re all about.” – Air Force senior nose guard Ben Garland.

Note to Quote: Air Force is 8-10-1 all-time in bowl games but has not won one since 2000, when it beat Fresno State, 37-34, in the Silicon Valley Bowl. The Falcons have lost three straight bowl games and six of their past eight dating back to the 1992 Liberty Bowl. Numerically Speaking

0-6: Air Force’s all-time record at Amon G. Carter Stadium, TCU’s home facility and site of the Armed Forces Bowl. The Falcons are 0-4 against TCU at the stadium and have lost there in the 2007 and 2008 Armed Forces bowls.

8: Turnovers forced by Air Force in the second half of the regular season. The Falcons forced 20 in the first half.

581.2: Houston’s yards-per-game average in its 13 games this season – more than twice what Air Force’s defense allowed per game in the regular season (284.8).

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