El Paso County’s budgeting for 2010 kicked off Thursday with the budget director forecasting “no recovery” in sales tax collections for at least 18 months.

“We believe we are being very conservative but also realistic,” said Nicola Sapp. “We will continue to decline even further and sometime in 2010 we will stabilize. We have not built in any recovery.”

The county’s forecast, based on economic indicators and an industry analysis, calls for county sales and use tax revenue to dip to $62.8 million in 2010, a $700,000 reduction from 2009, which itself is a $4.1 million drop from 2008 collections.

Colorado Springs economist Dave Bamberger isn’t as pessimistic.

“We’re going to be wobbling along at the bottom for at least through the end of this year and probably into 2010,” he said. “The big issue right now seems to be declining economic activity that has translated into significant job losses.”

He noted the Springs metro area — El Paso and Teller counties — is losing jobs at an annual rate of 10,000.

“Looking at the numbers, it’s hard to be optimistic about the future,” he said. “If they (county officials) are saying we’re going to see continued slowdown in economic activity and little pick up until 2010, then I would agree with that.”

Sapp predicted further decline before sales tax revenues plateau, not bounce back.

That means commissioners will have to cut spending for 2010. Sapp forecast total revenues, which includes money from property taxes, fees, interest earnings and vehicle taxes, of $227.8 million, a slight drop from this year’s expected revenue.

Commissioners were to hear presentations Thursday from elected officials and department heads about critical needs.

In her presentation, Sapp noted that in the last seven years, the county has provided one cost of living pay raise of 2 percent, compared to the federal cost of living increases of 26.1 percent as measured by the Social Security Administration.

She said the county still has the lowest property tax rate Colorado’s largest counties. County taxes per person come to $189 per year. The next lowest is Arapahoe County at $279.

Given the budget restrictions, it’s doubtful commissioners will find money to address the county’s $385 million in capital needs and another $73.8 million in operating needs cited by Sapp.

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